Some misguided people have been asking me what I think will happen to us during the big Friday storm to come. Do you remember that bad movie a few years back where the world was ravaged by a series of super storms? That Hollywood polar outbreak caused the Statue of Liberty to get buried by super snow. Looking at the early satellite pictures of Friday's storm as it moves through Texas causes shivers to tingle my weak spine. I want to call people and tell them to lock themselves into libraries and burn furniture and books for warmth.(That was part of the movie script.)
Tuesday, a little freezing rain event morphed into a surprise wet snow event here in Roanoke. We didn't get much snow because it was too warm, but just north of here, some people got up to six inches of snow. That little storm is what may just make or break our next storm on Friday.
Initial computer forecast models had Roanoke in the murky zone of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Melted down, the models predicted we would get about an inch and a half of liquid. Further north from about Greene County north through Washington, Baltimore, and Philadelphia, the precipitation would stay all snow and they could end up with 20-30 inches by the time the storm exits on Saturday afternoon. Furthermore, the models predicted that the new storm will transfer its energy to a new low pressure off the coast of Virginia and "bomb." That means that it will quickly wrap up and pump copious amounts of snow and wind upon the east coast. Thus, blizzard warnings will no doubt go up soon.
However, things have subtly changed in the past few hours. That little storm that passed through Tuesday is now out in the Atlantic and IT has BOMBED. Amazingly, it will have the intensity and winds of ...get this...a Category 4 hurricane. Rarely has such a super non-tropical storm formed. (Watch out for the UK in a few days).
Sometimes, the best way to understand a storm is to pretend its sentient. Our new monster storm, the one slated to hit this area Friday, will be following the same path as the previously weaker storm. Now that the weak sister is POWERFUL, our new storm will have the tendency to STAY AWAY.
That's what the new computer model runs are beginning to detect. The new big storm's projected path is now slated to be further south than earlier predicted, essentially staying further away from the super cyclone in the Northern Atlantic. That more southerly track will allow more cold air to be dragged down the spine of the Appalachians ahead of the precipitation. This change will only be a degree or two, but it may prove to be enough to keep Roanoke in mostly all snow Friday-Saturday morning. It most likely will also slow down our storm as it decides on its final path and waits for the big Atlantic storm to clear the area. If all that happens, look for Roanoke to get about 15 inches of frozen stuff. If the sleet mixes in, as is forecast right now, look for us to get closer to 7 inches of stuff.
I'm beginning to lean toward big snow for us...but I have very little confidence in that prediction. And that's the truth.
Tuesday, a little freezing rain event morphed into a surprise wet snow event here in Roanoke. We didn't get much snow because it was too warm, but just north of here, some people got up to six inches of snow. That little storm is what may just make or break our next storm on Friday.
Initial computer forecast models had Roanoke in the murky zone of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Melted down, the models predicted we would get about an inch and a half of liquid. Further north from about Greene County north through Washington, Baltimore, and Philadelphia, the precipitation would stay all snow and they could end up with 20-30 inches by the time the storm exits on Saturday afternoon. Furthermore, the models predicted that the new storm will transfer its energy to a new low pressure off the coast of Virginia and "bomb." That means that it will quickly wrap up and pump copious amounts of snow and wind upon the east coast. Thus, blizzard warnings will no doubt go up soon.
However, things have subtly changed in the past few hours. That little storm that passed through Tuesday is now out in the Atlantic and IT has BOMBED. Amazingly, it will have the intensity and winds of ...get this...a Category 4 hurricane. Rarely has such a super non-tropical storm formed. (Watch out for the UK in a few days).
Sometimes, the best way to understand a storm is to pretend its sentient. Our new monster storm, the one slated to hit this area Friday, will be following the same path as the previously weaker storm. Now that the weak sister is POWERFUL, our new storm will have the tendency to STAY AWAY.
That's what the new computer model runs are beginning to detect. The new big storm's projected path is now slated to be further south than earlier predicted, essentially staying further away from the super cyclone in the Northern Atlantic. That more southerly track will allow more cold air to be dragged down the spine of the Appalachians ahead of the precipitation. This change will only be a degree or two, but it may prove to be enough to keep Roanoke in mostly all snow Friday-Saturday morning. It most likely will also slow down our storm as it decides on its final path and waits for the big Atlantic storm to clear the area. If all that happens, look for Roanoke to get about 15 inches of frozen stuff. If the sleet mixes in, as is forecast right now, look for us to get closer to 7 inches of stuff.
I'm beginning to lean toward big snow for us...but I have very little confidence in that prediction. And that's the truth.
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